Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -600 FDU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +16 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -14.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -9.8 (+6.2) | 154.1 (+27.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -12.6 (+3.4) | 156.5 (+25.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -9.3 (+6.7) | 152.9 (+29.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -9.9 (+6.1) | 152.7 (+29.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | -2.4 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#228) | -0.09 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#225) | -0.25 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#222) | 0.396 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 17.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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