Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -450 ETAM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +4 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -4.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -3.0 (+1.0) | 140.0 (-30.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.2 (+1.8) | 137.3 (-27.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -3.4 (+0.6) | 139.5 (-29.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -3.5 (+0.5) | 140.9 (-30.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-9 | 5-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#289) | -2.5 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#343) | -0.12 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#330) | -0.38 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.315 (#320) | 0.348 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 20.9% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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