Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -4000 DEL +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +34 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -24.3 (+9.7) | 136.8 (+13.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -20.0 (+14.0) | 136.8 (+13.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -19.0 (+15.0) | 138.1 (+11.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#19) | -1.1 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#185) | -2.13 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#173) | -3.37 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#172) | 0.097 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 47.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 11.9% |
| ORB% | 48.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 43.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 5.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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