Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | RICE -200 GASO +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICE +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -1.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -1.3 (+18.3) | 141.3 (+17.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -0.9 (+16.1) | 140.6 (+18.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -0.9 (+17.9) | 138.8 (+20.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICE -0.7 (+16.3) | 139.9 (+19.1) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -16.7 (#358) | -7.2 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#287) | -1.06 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#287) | -1.51 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.146 (#359) | 0.347 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 33.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 37.8% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 16.2% | 16.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 69.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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