They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–19 on winners spread MAE 11.7 62 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina State @ Kentucky +20.0 153.2 90% 63–106 ✓
Merrimack @ Troy +7.9 150.9 78% 54–73 ✓
Wichita State @ Richmond +10.8 138.5 82% 56–53 ✗
Marshall @ Miami (OH) -1.5 155.2 42% 95–69 ✓
Bryant @ Florida Atlantic +4.0 147.7 62% 74–85 ✓
Towson @ UNC Greensboro -2.5 140.4 30% 56–53 ✓
North Dakota State @ Indiana State +16.4 149.4 88% 75–101 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +10.1 135.8 81% 53–64 ✓
Austin Peay @ South Florida +10.3 128.3 83% 62–60 ✗
UAlbany @ Saint Joseph's +3.2 138.1 59% 79–99 ✓
Boise State @ Charlotte +5.8 133.0 74% 42–54 ✓
Davidson @ Charleston +4.1 162.5 60% 66–89 ✓
Pittsburgh @ VCU +7.4 133.5 77% 67–71 ✓
Little Rock @ East Tennessee State +14.0 151.0 88% 76–84 ✓
Norfolk State @ Monmouth -5.0 143.4 33% 64–59 ✓
Hartford @ Boston University +10.2 140.1 82% 66–102 ✓
UL Monroe @ TCU +7.9 137.9 74% 60–95 ✓
Samford @ Alabama A&M — — — 84–64 —
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana +10.4 139.5 83% 88–94 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Illinois +11.3 139.0 81% 44–57 ✓
Northwestern State @ Illinois State +7.1 133.0 76% 70–67 ✗
North Dakota @ Elon +6.1 143.8 72% 77–73 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +14.4 140.1 87% 75–97 ✓
Texas State @ UTSA +4.0 140.4 66% 56–61 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ LSU +13.3 139.4 85% 62–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia Tech +7.0 127.5 75% 50–68 ✓
UC Riverside @ Creighton +13.1 150.8 84% 51–80 ✓
Coppin State @ Tennessee Tech -0.6 145.7 46% 90–85 ✓
Long Island University @ Marquette +18.2 147.2 90% 58–95 ✓
Utah Tech @ Arizona +17.6 158.1 89% 77–104 ✓
Portland @ Air Force -2.8 144.0 36% 64–51 ✓
Sam Houston @ Utah +15.1 131.5 85% 65–55 ✗
Central Michigan @ Minnesota +3.1 139.1 58% 60–68 ✓
South Dakota @ Mississippi State +20.6 138.2 91% 42–79 ✓
Michigan @ Arizona State -2.7 141.8 36% 62–87 ✗
St. Thomas @ Montana -12.2 138.0 16% 59–78 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Tulsa -2.4 152.4 35% 66–85 ✗
Hofstra @ San José State +0.8 141.2 46% 85–76 ✗
Utah State @ San Diego -0.1 147.3 48% 91–89 ✓
California Baptist @ Washington +9.8 132.9 79% 73–64 ✗
Rider @ Stetson +2.4 138.8 63% 68–78 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Niagara +0.4 130.1 51% 64–73 ✓
Queens University @ Green Bay -3.9 131.5 35% 81–65 ✓
Colorado @ Texas A&M -0.9 145.9 44% 103–75 ✓
Penn State @ Virginia Tech -1.0 146.7 46% 59–61 ✗
Buffalo @ Drake +7.2 147.7 76% 72–80 ✓
Lafayette @ UMBC -5.1 136.9 32% 63–71 ✗
La Salle @ Wake Forest +0.7 141.9 56% 63–75 ✓
Massachusetts @ Murray State -1.0 143.7 45% 71–69 ✓
Furman @ Old Dominion -2.3 145.0 39% 77–82 ✗
Lamar @ Lindenwood -2.8 131.1 37% 73–71 ✓
Howard @ Wyoming +1.4 145.3 54% 71–78 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Kennesaw State -2.1 152.5 38% 68–72 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Georgetown +2.5 154.7 62% 84–66 ✗
Colorado State @ Charleston +0.4 155.1 44% 64–74 ✓
VMI @ Longwood +4.2 135.8 67% 58–90 ✓
Temple @ Rutgers +14.4 135.9 86% 72–66 ✗
Western Carolina @ McNeese +3.4 133.5 64% 88–69 ✗
Tarleton State @ Belmont -2.9 138.5 40% 89–81 ✓
Indiana @ Xavier -3.0 153.6 37% 81–79 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Georgia State +7.5 143.7 74% 62–61 ✗
Colgate @ Duquesne -2.8 146.3 36% 80–85 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.