Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -150 LMU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +18 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -1.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -1.4 (-19.4) | 156.6 (-6.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -2.4 (-20.4) | 154.2 (-4.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -2.5 (-20.5) | 154.7 (-4.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -2.6 (-20.6) | 156.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-12 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | 0.8 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#188) | -1.10 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#171) | -1.20 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#102) | 0.488 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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