Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -163 EKU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +1 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -12.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -9.0 (-10.0) | 146.1 (-23.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -9.1 (-10.1) | 144.7 (-21.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -7.5 (-8.5) | 143.7 (-20.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -8.9 (-9.9) | 143.4 (-20.4) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#252) | -7.3 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#283) | -1.89 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#278) | -2.64 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.263 (#330) | 0.271 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 18.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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