Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | AF +140 PORT -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +13 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -2.1 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -6.0 (-7.0) | 144.4 (-29.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -2.8 (-10.2) | 144.0 (-29.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -3.4 (-9.6) | 145.3 (-30.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -1.7 (-11.3) | 145.2 (-30.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | AF 80 – 58 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-9 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#267) | 6.4 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#341) | 0.54 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#343) | 0.84 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.224 (#347) | 0.514 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 45.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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