Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | PORT -195 AF +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +22 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -5.4 (-27.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -3.1 (-25.1) | 137.1 (+0.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -2.9 (-24.9) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -3.3 (-25.3) | 137.4 (+0.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -2.6 (-24.6) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | PORT 64 – 51 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-12 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#181) | 0.2 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#204) | 0.57 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#191) | 0.39 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.480 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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