Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -2000 UCR +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +29 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -14.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -16.6 (+12.4) | 151.4 (-20.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -16.2 (+12.8) | 149.0 (-18.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -13.1 (+15.9) | 150.8 (-19.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#30) | 3.7 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#86) | 1.38 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#89) | 1.92 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#61) | 0.571 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.40 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 87.1% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.5% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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