Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -600 LR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -19.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -13.5 (-5.5) | 152.4 (+7.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -14.0 (-6.0) | 154.0 (+6.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -14.0 (-6.0) | 151.0 (+9.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -14.8 (-6.8) | 151.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 80.9 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#122) | -8.4 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#143) | -0.98 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#139) | -1.68 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#153) | 0.167 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 20.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 57.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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