Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -163 DAV +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +23 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -4.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 190.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -4.1 (+18.9) | 162.5 (-7.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.5 (+18.5) | 161.1 (-6.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -6.0 (+17.0) | 165.7 (-10.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -4.0 (+19.0) | 166.7 (-11.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 11-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#222) | 1.9 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#121) | 2.89 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#134) | 4.05 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#85) | 0.677 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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