Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -0.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -1.7 (+10.3) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -3.5 (+8.5) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.7 (+11.3) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.7 (+11.3) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#207) | -1.3 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#82) | 0.05 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#94) | -0.44 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#66) | 0.715 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 39.6% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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