Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -300 UALB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +20 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -2.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+46.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.1 (+16.9) | 132.5 (+45.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -3.5 (+16.5) | 141.7 (+36.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.2 (+16.8) | 138.1 (+39.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.8 (+16.2) | 136.5 (+41.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2021 | JOES 67 – 64 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#238) | 3.1 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#193) | -1.33 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#193) | -2.55 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#188) | 0.431 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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