Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +105 IU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -6.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -3.6 (+1.6) | 153.5 (+6.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -2.5 (+0.5) | 149.8 (+10.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -3.0 (+1.0) | 153.6 (+6.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -0.7 (-1.3) | 150.8 (+9.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#95) | 19.1 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#109) | 1.01 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#115) | 1.59 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#248) | 0.625 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.6% | 59.7% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.5% | 65.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 28.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 82.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 9.5% |
Game Analysis
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