Betting Lines
| Spread | COPP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +180 COPP -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +5 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | COPP -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -1.7 (-3.3) | 147.7 (+27.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COPP -2.8 (-2.2) | 150.0 (+25.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COPP -0.6 (-4.4) | 145.7 (+29.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COPP -0.7 (-4.3) | 146.4 (+28.6) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#333) | -0.5 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#292) | 0.16 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#286) | 0.12 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.160 (#356) | 0.552 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 27.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 55.7% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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