Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +140 HOF -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -2.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -0.2 (-9.2) | 136.2 (+24.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -5.0 (-4.0) | 137.9 (+23.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -0.8 (-9.8) | 141.2 (+19.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -0.9 (-9.9) | 136.3 (+24.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#261) | 6.6 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#125) | 2.83 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#131) | 4.29 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#249) | 0.806 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 48.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 61.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 14.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.6% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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