Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +200 TXST -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -7.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -4.7 (+0.3) | 139.3 (-22.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -2.8 (+2.2) | 138.6 (-21.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -4.0 (+1.0) | 140.4 (-23.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | TXST 80 – 69 UTSA |
| Nov 18, 2023 | TXST 72 – 62 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-10 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#259) | -3.2 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#236) | 0.25 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#242) | -0.34 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#334) | 0.404 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.3% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 27.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 57.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 45.5% |
Game Analysis
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