Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -333 UTSA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -15.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -8.8 (+1.2) | 153.4 (-19.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -9.9 (+0.1) | 151.1 (-17.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -10.0 (+0.0) | 150.0 (-16.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -11.3 (-1.3) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | TXST 80 – 69 UTSA |
| Nov 18, 2022 | UTSA 61 – 56 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#170) | -6.5 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#150) | -1.03 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#157) | -1.48 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#264) | 0.278 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 18.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 43.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.8% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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