Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -145 UTSA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -21.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -9.9 (+1.1) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -12.2 (-1.2) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -10.4 (+0.6) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | TXST 72 – 62 UTSA |
| Nov 18, 2022 | UTSA 61 – 56 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 16-1 | 2-12 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 82.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#245) | -14.2 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#227) | -3.41 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#227) | -5.90 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#118) | 0.000 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 28.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 33.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 12.3% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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