Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -8000 LIU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +37 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -24.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -23.0 (+14.0) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -22.0 (+15.0) | 147.5 (+5.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -18.2 (+18.8) | 147.2 (+5.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 3-26 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 1-15 |
| Home | 16-1 | 2-10 |
| Away | 8-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#68) | -9.5 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#131) | -0.29 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#126) | -0.37 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#72) | 0.625 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 32.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 34.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 14.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 11.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 9.4% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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