Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +115 MASS -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MASS -0.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -1.3 (-0.7) | 147.4 (-7.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -0.6 (-1.4) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -1.0 (-1.0) | 143.7 (-3.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -1.5 (-0.5) | 145.1 (-5.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#140) | 2.6 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#70) | 1.24 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#64) | 2.30 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.823 (#7) | 0.587 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 38.4% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 59.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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