Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -175 TAR +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -6.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -2.0 (-6.0) | 137.0 (+33.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -1.1 (-9.1) | 143.3 (+26.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -2.9 (-5.1) | 138.5 (+31.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#225) | 4.1 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#225) | -0.58 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#255) | -0.58 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.264 (#328) | 0.417 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 36.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 38.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 27.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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