Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -275 COLO +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +28 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -2.9 (-25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -0.9 (-27.1) | 151.2 (+26.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -1.6 (-26.4) | 146.3 (+31.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -0.9 (-27.1) | 145.9 (+32.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -1.8 (-26.2) | 147.3 (+30.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#98) | 6.7 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#181) | 0.69 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#177) | 1.61 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#152) | 0.661 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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