Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -138 CARK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -1.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.5 (+8.5) | 133.1 (+3.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -0.2 (+8.8) | 128.4 (+8.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.4 (+8.6) | 130.1 (+6.9) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#285) | -7.2 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#269) | -0.56 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#283) | -1.11 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.323 (#307) | 0.250 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 8.7% | 12.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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