Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ODU +280 FUR -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -2.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -0.6 (+5.6) | 142.2 (+16.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -4.4 (+9.4) | 142.5 (+16.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.3 (+7.3) | 145.0 (+14.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.1 (+7.1) | 146.5 (+12.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#190) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#312) | -0.17 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#310) | -0.21 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.318 (#309) | 0.583 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 9.8% |
Game Analysis
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