Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Willett Hall · November 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread LONG -13.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money LONG -900 / VMI +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total LONG win
Actual LONG +32 148 Won
Massey LONG -8.1 (+23.9) — —
Massey Totals — 132.0 (+16.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 87% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LONG -5.2 (+26.8) 136.1 (+11.9) 75% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LONG -4.2 (+27.8) 135.8 (+12.2) 67% ✓
Baseline ML LONG -4.7 (+27.3) 134.1 (+13.9) 69% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LONG -5.5 (+26.5) 138.8 (+9.2) 71% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 17, 2023 LONG 68 – 49 VMI
Dec 1, 2020 VMI 84 – 71 LONG

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LONG VMI
Overall 20-12 7-25
Conference 12-6 2-16
Home 12-3 6-8
Away 8-8 1-14
Neutral 0-1 0-3
Last 5 0-2 0-2
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 71.0 65.7
Avg Pts Against 66.4 78.4
Massey -0.7 (#197) -0.1 (#181)
Bradley-Terry -0.66 (#248) -0.62 (#245)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.95 (#253) -0.88 (#246)
RPI 0.479 (#200) 0.469 (#208)
Shooting & Four Factors LONG VMI
FG% 36.2% 35.9%
3PT% 30.8% 24.0%
REB / G 34.0 36.5
OREB / G 10.5 10.0
AST / TO 0.82 0.61
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 39.2% 41.0%
TOV% 14.9% 17.0%
ORB% 22.3% 25.6%
FT Rate 16.2% 19.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.8% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 20.5% 13.4%
DRB% 61.0% 76.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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