Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -900 VMI +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +32 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -8.1 (+23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -5.2 (+26.8) | 136.1 (+11.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -4.2 (+27.8) | 135.8 (+12.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -4.7 (+27.3) | 134.1 (+13.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -5.5 (+26.5) | 138.8 (+9.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | LONG 68 – 49 VMI |
| Dec 1, 2020 | VMI 84 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#197) | -0.1 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#248) | -0.62 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#253) | -0.88 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#200) | 0.469 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.2% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 61.0% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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