Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -2500 VMI +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +19 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -19.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -17.7 (+1.3) | 136.9 (-19.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -18.6 (+0.4) | 137.0 (-20.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -18.7 (+0.3) | 135.6 (-18.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -19.2 (-0.2) | 137.7 (-20.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | LONG 90 – 58 VMI |
| Dec 1, 2020 | VMI 84 – 71 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 84.9 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#90) | -9.6 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#65) | -4.27 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#90) | -5.91 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#114) | 0.349 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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