Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GT -800 NIU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | GT -10.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -8.7 (+9.3) | 127.4 (-9.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -10.8 (+7.2) | 124.4 (-6.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -7.0 (+11.0) | 127.5 (-9.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | 2.2 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#26) | -0.08 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#32) | -0.04 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#21) | 0.708 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 36.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 25.9% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 37.5% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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