Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +100 COLG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -5.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -1.7 (+6.7) | 148.6 (+16.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -4.2 (+9.2) | 148.9 (+16.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -2.8 (+7.8) | 146.3 (+18.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -2.6 (+7.6) | 149.0 (+16.0) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 16-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#114) | 8.6 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#198) | 1.39 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#219) | 2.32 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#261) | 0.511 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 52.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 61.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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