Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | DRKE -1200 BUF +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -8.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -8.5 (-0.5) | 147.0 (+5.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -8.0 (-0.0) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -7.2 (+0.8) | 147.7 (+4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -8.1 (-0.1) | 148.9 (+3.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#103) | -4.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#119) | 0.23 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#117) | 0.05 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#204) | 0.650 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 26.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 17.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 43.4% |
Game Analysis
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