Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USD +260 USU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +2 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -3.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.1 (+1.1) | 146.0 (+34.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -0.1 (-1.9) | 147.3 (+32.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.0 (-1.0) | 148.3 (+31.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -0.2 (-2.2) | 151.7 (+28.3) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | USU 108 – 81 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#232) | 9.1 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#84) | 1.29 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#95) | 1.87 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#119) | 0.801 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 44.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 40.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 80.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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