Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | USU -4000 USD +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +27 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | USU -18.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+49.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -16.7 (+10.3) | 140.0 (+49.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -15.9 (+11.1) | 141.1 (+47.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -16.3 (+10.7) | 140.1 (+48.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -17.1 (+9.9) | 141.6 (+47.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | USU 91 – 89 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#38) | -2.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#25) | -0.62 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#32) | -1.31 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#30) | 0.452 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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