I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · December 7, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USU -18.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money USU -4000 / USD +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total USU win
Actual USU +27 189 Won
Massey USU -18.4 (+8.6) — —
Massey Totals — 139.7 (+49.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ USU -16.7 (+10.3) 140.0 (+49.0) 88% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML USU -15.9 (+11.1) 141.1 (+47.9) 88% ✓
Baseline ML USU -16.3 (+10.7) 140.1 (+48.9) 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML USU -17.1 (+9.9) 141.6 (+47.4) 87% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2022 USU 91 – 89 USD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USU USD
Overall 28-7 18-15
Conference 14-4 7-9
Home 14-1 12-6
Away 8-4 4-7
Neutral 6-2 2-2
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.9 72.5
Avg Pts Against 72.6 78.1
Massey 10.2 (#38) -2.4 (#223)
Bradley-Terry 2.57 (#25) -0.62 (#239)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.26 (#32) -1.31 (#260)
RPI 0.628 (#30) 0.452 (#249)
Shooting & Four Factors USU USD
FG% 51.0% 43.3%
3PT% 29.1% 31.8%
REB / G 37.3 38.6
OREB / G 9.7 9.8
AST / TO 1.47 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.6% 48.6%
TOV% 17.2% 20.2%
ORB% 29.6% 27.7%
FT Rate 20.0% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 46.7%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 18.4%
DRB% 76.9% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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