Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -1200 ULM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +35 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -12.1 (+22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -7.9 (+27.1) | 137.9 (+17.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -9.2 (+25.8) | 138.0 (+17.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -9.7 (+25.3) | 136.7 (+18.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#302) | -10.2 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#345) | -0.74 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#337) | -1.23 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.289 (#322) | 0.375 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 27.1% |
| 3PT% | 18.9% | 10.0% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 28.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 60.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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