Betting Lines
| Spread | RID -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | STET +120 RID -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | STET -1.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -3.6 (+6.4) | 136.7 (+9.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -5.4 (+4.6) | 133.0 (+13.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -2.4 (+7.6) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#52) | 6.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#28) | -0.27 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#41) | -0.07 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#208) | 0.542 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 64.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.43 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 52.0% |
Game Analysis
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