Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -40.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UK -100000 SCST +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +43 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UK -25.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -22.6 (+20.4) | 154.2 (+14.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -23.0 (+20.0) | 156.4 (+12.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -20.0 (+23.0) | 153.2 (+15.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -23.2 (+19.8) | 153.6 (+15.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 84.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#29) | -7.4 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#232) | -1.19 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#202) | -1.75 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#198) | 0.403 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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