Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +350 NORF -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -6.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -4.1 (-0.9) | 138.9 (-15.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -5.0 (+0.0) | 129.9 (-6.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.0 (-0.0) | 143.4 (-20.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -4.0 (-1.0) | 145.0 (-22.0) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-5 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-15 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -15.0 (#358) | -0.1 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#293) | -0.48 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#289) | -0.57 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#204) | 0.583 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.4% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.34 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 31.3% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.2% | 64.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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