Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | INST -700 NDSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +26 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | INST -17.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -18.7 (+7.3) | 150.6 (+25.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -18.1 (+7.9) | 151.0 (+25.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -16.4 (+9.6) | 149.4 (+26.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2021 | NDSU 77 – 70 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#73) | -2.7 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#68) | -1.87 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#66) | -2.63 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#42) | 0.514 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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