Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UL -175 LT +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | UL -13.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+43.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -10.4 (-4.4) | 139.5 (+42.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -14.1 (-8.1) | 139.8 (+42.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -13.8 (-7.8) | 139.5 (+42.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | LT 65 – 44 UL |
| Dec 8, 2024 | LT 69 – 58 UL |
| Dec 9, 2023 | LT 72 – 67 UL |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LT 78 – 69 UL |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UL 61 – 56 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-0 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#56) | 2.6 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#14) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#19) | -0.56 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.854 (#4) | 0.594 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 29.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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