Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UL +250 LT -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -12.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -8.7 (-2.3) | 150.1 (-23.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -8.4 (-2.6) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -9.2 (-1.8) | 149.2 (-22.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -9.8 (-1.2) | 150.3 (-23.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | LT 65 – 44 UL |
| Dec 9, 2023 | LT 72 – 67 UL |
| Nov 18, 2022 | UL 94 – 88 LT |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LT 78 – 69 UL |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UL 61 – 56 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-12 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#347) | 4.5 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#359) | 0.82 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.47 (#357) | 1.38 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#294) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 59.9% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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