Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | LT -550 UL +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +21 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | LT -12.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -11.1 (+9.9) | 127.1 (-18.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -12.5 (+8.5) | 130.1 (-21.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -10.9 (+10.1) | 128.7 (-19.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -11.7 (+9.3) | 126.5 (-17.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | LT 69 – 58 UL |
| Dec 9, 2023 | LT 72 – 67 UL |
| Nov 18, 2022 | UL 94 – 88 LT |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LT 78 – 69 UL |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UL 61 – 56 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#251) | -13.5 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#231) | -3.06 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#254) | -4.30 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#273) | 0.381 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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