Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LT -275 UL +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LT -15.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -12.9 (-7.9) | 134.0 (+5.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -9.3 (-4.3) | 136.8 (+2.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -13.4 (-8.4) | 132.6 (+6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -14.6 (-9.6) | 133.3 (+5.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | LT 65 – 44 UL |
| Dec 8, 2024 | LT 69 – 58 UL |
| Nov 18, 2022 | UL 94 – 88 LT |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LT 78 – 69 UL |
| Dec 13, 2020 | UL 61 – 56 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#47) | -0.3 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#24) | 0.55 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#30) | 1.04 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#21) | 0.486 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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