Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UL +170 LT -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UL -4.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.7 (+3.3) | 150.6 (-33.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -2.1 (+2.9) | 147.9 (-30.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -2.5 (+2.5) | 151.7 (-34.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -1.9 (+3.1) | 151.6 (-34.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | LT 65 – 44 UL |
| Dec 8, 2024 | LT 69 – 58 UL |
| Dec 9, 2023 | LT 72 – 67 UL |
| Nov 18, 2022 | UL 94 – 88 LT |
| Dec 11, 2021 | LT 78 – 69 UL |
Game Analysis
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