Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | CLT +220 BOIS -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +12 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -8.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -4.8 (+7.2) | 132.8 (-36.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -4.7 (+7.3) | 127.8 (-31.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -5.8 (+6.2) | 133.0 (-37.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -5.9 (+6.1) | 131.6 (-35.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#24) | 1.1 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#97) | -0.61 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#99) | -0.10 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#127) | 0.469 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.2% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 88.6% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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