Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG +110 TOW -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +3 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -1.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -5.1 (+2.1) | 139.0 (-30.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.6 (+0.6) | 134.0 (-25.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.5 (-0.5) | 140.4 (-31.4) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | TOW 74 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#202) | 9.5 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#213) | 4.20 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#208) | 6.57 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#170) | 0.644 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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