Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -14.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -13.1 (-3.1) | 131.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.5 (+2.5) | 129.4 (+8.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -12.5 (-2.5) | 134.1 (+3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -13.0 (-3.0) | 134.7 (+3.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | TOW 56 – 53 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 11-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#77) | -4.0 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#114) | 0.22 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#96) | 0.03 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.481 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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