Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -1200 SDAK +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +37 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -27.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -27.1 (+9.9) | 137.8 (-16.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -25.5 (+11.5) | 136.0 (-15.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -20.6 (+16.4) | 138.2 (-17.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#16) | -6.7 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#25) | 0.47 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#23) | 0.66 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.775 (#15) | 0.719 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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