Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ASU +250 MICH -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +25 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -4.2 (+29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -2.3 (+27.3) | 147.7 (+1.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -1.8 (+26.8) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -2.7 (+27.7) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -2.6 (+27.6) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#128) | 6.7 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#142) | 1.57 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#138) | 2.11 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#189) | 0.639 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 2.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 11.4% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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