All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Troy Trojans
73 54
FINAL Neutral
Merrimack Warriors
Dahlberg Arena (Neutral) · November 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread TROY -6.5 Home covered
O/U 131.5 Under
Money TROY -250 / MRMK +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total TROY win
Actual TROY +19 127 Won
Massey TROY -10.3 (+8.7)
Massey Totals 155.1 (-28.1)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 90%
Baseline Plus ML TROY -13.2 (+5.8) 145.3 (-18.3) 87%
Baseline ML TROY -8.1 (+10.9) 146.7 (-19.7) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML TROY -10.2 (+8.8) 150.9 (-23.9) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 29, 2024 MRMK 7268 TROY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TROY MRMK
Overall 20-13 18-16
Conference 11-7 12-4
Home 11-3 10-6
Away 7-8 8-8
Neutral 2-2 0-2
Last 5 1-0 0-1
Streak L1 W11
Avg Pts For 70.4 61.9
Avg Pts Against 67.8 64.0
Massey 5.2 (#83) -5.1 (#278)
Bradley-Terry 1.42 (#62) -0.25 (#191)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.94 (#71) -0.22 (#181)
RPI 0.438 (#235) 0.583 (#103)
Shooting & Four Factors TROY MRMK
FG% 41.5% 38.5%
3PT% 40.0% 20.7%
REB / G 32.0 26.0
OREB / G 11.0 11.0
AST / TO 1.80 0.76
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 43.1%
TOV% 13.4% 24.6%
ORB% 28.2% 25.6%
FT Rate 20.0% 24.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.7% 64.6%
Opp TOV% 26.1% 33.7%
DRB% 77.8% 50.0%
Opp FT Rate 52.3% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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