Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -700 MRMK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -19.3 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -12.7 (-16.7) | 134.5 (+5.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -14.4 (-18.4) | 132.0 (+8.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -13.0 (-17.0) | 133.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -12.8 (-16.8) | 134.6 (+5.4) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2022 | TROY 73 – 54 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#89) | -8.2 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#63) | -1.96 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#84) | -2.22 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#59) | 0.399 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 22.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.