Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
Troy Trojans
68 72
FINAL Trojan Turkey Tipoff
Merrimack Warriors
Trojan Arena · November 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TROY -11.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money TROY -700 / MRMK +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total TROY win
Actual MRMK +4 140 Lost
Massey TROY -19.3 (-23.3)
Massey Totals 122.3 (+17.7)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML TROY -12.7 (-16.7) 134.5 (+5.5) 81%
Baseline ML TROY -14.4 (-18.4) 132.0 (+8.0) 82%
Baseline Tuned ML TROY -13.0 (-17.0) 133.1 (+6.9) 85%
Efficiency Plus ML TROY -12.8 (-16.8) 134.6 (+5.4) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2022 TROY 7354 MRMK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TROY MRMK
Overall 23-11 18-15
Conference 13-5 14-6
Home 11-4 8-5
Away 9-6 9-8
Neutral 3-1 1-2
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.0 65.6
Avg Pts Against 66.3 64.2
Massey 5.2 (#89) -8.2 (#311)
Bradley-Terry 1.62 (#63) -1.96 (#314)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.03 (#84) -2.22 (#288)
RPI 0.588 (#59) 0.399 (#314)
Shooting & Four Factors TROY MRMK
FG% 45.7% 37.9%
3PT% 30.4% 22.7%
REB / G 35.3 30.4
OREB / G 12.3 8.4
AST / TO 0.91 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.6% 42.1%
TOV% 23.5% 17.2%
ORB% 37.2% 22.4%
FT Rate 22.4% 19.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 21.9%
DRB% 66.0% 61.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.7% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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